College Football Analytics: Rivalry Week Recap

Recapping the stats from rivalry week

The 2021 College Football regular season is essentially over, with only the Army-Navy game and a USC-Cal makeup game left on the schedule. This is season flew by, and was filled with the fun chaos we all come to love from the sport. Rivalry week is always special to those who partake. For one last time this season: let’s recap the numbers of the week!

*Note* During the season if I miss a certain game in my recaps, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com)or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.

Also, I use Expected Points Added rather frequently in these recaps. If you need help digesting the decimals, I wrote about how to make it easier to read EPA/Play numbers.

Egg Bowl: Ole Miss 31 - Mississippi St. 21

The Lane Train takes down the Pirate in the Egg Bowl on Thanksgiving day. Mississippi State came into this game with some momentum, but at the end of the day Ole Miss was able to capitalize and produce more explosive plays to win the game. This was something that surprised me: the 10-2 regular season record for Ole Miss was their first 10 win regular season in school history.

NC State 34 - North Carolina 30

UNC kicked a field goal on a 4th and 3 to go up by 9 with around 3 minutes left to go in the 4th quarter. At one point UNC had a 99.9% chance to win per ESPN’s Win Probability model. What ensued: NC State scores a quick touchdown, recovers the onside kick, and scores another touchdown to put the game away for the Wolfpack. For a team that had ACC championship and even CFB Playoff hopes, that was a very fitting ending for the Tarheels.

The Game: Michigan 42 - Ohio State 27

THE CURSE HAS BEEN LIFTED LADIES AND GENTLEMEN! Michigan not only beats Ohio State for the first time since 2011, they flat out dominated them. Ohio State seemed like a solid college football playoff team coming into this game, but they got knocked out cold by the Wolverines. We knew coming into this game that, on paper, this was one of the better Jim Harbaugh Michigan teams. It was still extremely hard to see them get over the hump, but they snuffed out any noise and got the job done. Michigan is now a B1G championship game vs. Iowa away from the College Football Playoff.

Florida 24 - Florida State 21

This is only going into the recap to see if my brother truly reads these articles to be honest. Florida takes down Florida State and will officially welcome in the Billy Napier era today. It wasn’t a very clean day offensively, and there were a LOT of expected points lost to turnovers. FSU thought this was a game they could win coming into this week, but will go back to the drawing board for the 2022 season.

Wake Forest 41 - Boston College 10

Wake Forest is going to the ACC championship. Their win over Boston College clinched their spot in the big game, and it will be an offensive slugfest against the Pittsburgh Panthers. Boston College showed a lot of promise when QB Phil Jurkovec was fully healthy, but injuries derailed the Eagles season. It will be interesting to see what Jurkovec does this offseason, but if he is back Boston College will be a team to look out for in 2022.

Kentucky 52 - Louisville 21

From 2011-2015 Louisville won 5 straight Governor’s Cups. The tide has turned blue since then, as Kentucky has won 4 of the last 5 including this week’s contest. Under Mark Stoops Kentucky has become quite the football program. Wildcat QB Will Levis is continuing to get better and had one of the best performances of the week against the Cardinals. For Louisville, they continue to show flashes of brilliance, but not enough to sustain any success.

Oklahoma State 37 - Oklahoma 33

Bedlam! For the first time since 2014, the Oklahoma State Cowboys take down Oklahoma and steal a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. Oklahoma States defense was able to slow down Caleb Williams, and their offense was consistent enough to put the Cowboys over the top. Oklahoma State is still alive for the playoff, but might need some conference championship game chaos in order to make the final four.

For Oklahoma… well they lost Lincoln Riley to USC, and are officially out of the College Football Playoff. The Sooners have never been in this position, so it will be interesting to see how they rebound from this chaos before their big move to the SEC.

Iron Bowl: Alabama 24 - Auburn 22

The 2021 Iron Bowl was the first time the Iron Bowl ever went into overtime. It took 4 Overtime periods, but ultimately Alabama comes up victorious over rival Auburn. It wasn’t really a great day offensively for either team, especially with running the football. Both teams were stuffed on well over a third of their rushes, and only averaged 1.6 and 1.5 OL yards per cary.

Alabama dropped a spot in the playoff rankings last week, but with an Ohio State loss they may jump back up to their number 2 spot. Im not entirely sold on the Crimson Tide making it as a 2 loss team if they lose a close one to Georgia, but it is certainly on the table.

Notre Dame 45 - Stanford 14

Notre Dame handles its business against Stanford to finish the season 11-1. The offense continues to be great, and Notre Dame does not have a conference championship game they could potentially lose. They currently sit 6th in the rankings, so we will see where they end up in the next installment on Tuesday. They will most likely need Cincinnati to lose in the AAC championship game vs. Houston, which isn’t all that outrageous.

LSU 27 - Texas A&M 24

In LSU HC Ed Orgeron’s last game, the LSU Tigers steal one from Jimbo Fisher and the Texas A&M Aggies. This loss drops the Aggies to 8-4, which feels a bit underwhelming considering the hype surrounding the program at the beginning of the season. For LSU, they earn bowl eligibility and are still in search of their next head coach. With Lincoln Riley off the table, it will be interesting to see where LSU turns next.

QB Shoutout

I understand its Georgia Tech, who ranks 130th in EPA/Pass allowed, but Stetson Bennett has been producing this season as the Bulldogs QB. We know all about the Georgia defense, but we were wondering whether the Bulldog offense could keep up in the event their defense gives up a couple explosive TD’s. That still has not happened, but the offense has been doing more than its fair share. Georgia is the only legit national championship contender, it is right there for them. The question is: can they capitalize?

Power 5 QB Performances

Group of 5 QB Performances

If you’re wondering where your QB is, they either did not reach the minimum play requirement, or there was no ESPN QBR data available at the time of this graph creation.

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