College Football Analytics: Week 10 Recap

Crunching the Numbers on the Weekend

Okay so, let’s do a quick rundown on the top teams in college football. Number 1 is clearly Georgia, we know this. The number two team in the country is Alab… no maybe Cinci….no actually let’s go with… Ohio State? Who is the second best team in the country? Or even the third or fourth best for that matter? After #1 we have a LOT of questions left to be answered in the next month. Before we answer those questions we have some games to get to this past weekend. Let’s get started.

*Note* During the season if I miss a certain game in my recaps, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com)or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.

Also, I use Expected Points Added rather frequently in these recaps. If you need help digesting the decimals, I wrote about how to make it easier to read EPA/Play numbers.

Georgia 43 - Missouri 6

They called me a madmen for taking Missouri +38.5, but now look who is laughing! In all seriousness, Georgia was in cruise control this entire game. It can be hard to learn anything about a team’s offense when a majority of the game is in garbage time, but UGA QB Stetson Bennett had himself a game. He averaged over 1 EPA per play, which is a 100th percentile game in the CFP era. Again, Georgia was never really in danger of losing this, but that is a very good sign for a contending team that primarily relies on their defense.

North Carolina 58 - Wake Forest 55

What a shootout in the ACC* (*This was considered a non conference game, because… college football). North Carolina comes out victorious in the offensive showcase and knocks off undefeated Wake Forest. In the end a couple Sam Hartman turnovers made the difference, as well as UNC being a bit more explosive and consistent on offense. Despite underachieving on the season, the Tarheels should still be in line to become bowl eligible for the season ends, which is a consolation prize but still something. Wake Forest is still technically undefeated in the ACC, but it looks like their playoff hopes are all but over.

Cincinnati 28 - Tulsa 20

Another very close (in score) win for Cincinnati. A similar story to past games: the defense gets the job done, the offense lags behind, but ultimately they pull out with the win. The Bearcats are still undefeated, which is the bare minimum needed for a Group of 5 to have any hopes of the playoff. Cincinnati will have to start dominating some games, starting with a woeful South Florida team this week.

Army 21 - Air Force 14

This boxscore is the definition of patriotism in college football. Low scoring triple option football, one team having an absurdly high EPA/Pass because of very few passes, and EP lost to turnovers. Unfortunately for Air Force, the last part of that equation belong to them, as they lost 11.2 expected points to turnovers. They most likely win the game without those turnovers, but the Army Black Knights come out victorious and in the driver’s seat to win the Commander in Chiefs trophy.

Ohio State 26 - Nebraska 17

A rare negative EPA/Play game for the Buckeyes, but they still pull out the victory against Nebraska. After reestablishing themselves since losing to Oregon, this was a little bit of a step back for Ohio State. I don’t think there is anything concerning about this performance in regards to their B1G and playoff run.

This is another loss where Nebraska didn’t convincingly lose the post game win expectancy battle. Close losses and close post game expectancy losses have been a staple in the Scott Frost era. It is probably past the point of moral victories for Frost, but they truly aren’t getting run off the field. The Scott Frost era is nearing an end in Lincoln, and you can sum up the entire experience with a disappointed shoulder shrug.

Purdue 40 - Michigan State 29

Purdue knocks off another top 5 opponent! I don’t know what it is, but Purdue just comes alive when one of their B1G counterparts is atop the rankings. The victim this time was Michigan State, who were ultimately outclassed on offense this day. Purdue QB Aidan O’Connell had a brilliant game that earned him a 95.6 QBR, which was top on the week in the country. O’Connell has quietly put together a stellar season, he sits 5th in country in QBR at 86.1. Purdue’s next vic.. I mean opponent? A top ranked Ohio State.

Alabama 20 - LSU 14

A VERY close for comfort victory for the Crimson Tide over LSU. We are not really use to seeing the Tide struggle on offense this much, but they ultimately pulled out the victory over LSU. Alabama was ranked #2 in the initial college football playoff rankings this year, so I don’t believe this close win will do much to change that. They could drop to three but that is as far as I could see them drop. The bigger question is this: if the offense is struggling against LSU, what on earth are they going to do against an all time great defense in Georgia?

QB Shoutout:

We got a good Graham Mertz game! I know, I know, insert all of the Rutgers jokes you can find. Graham Mertz has really struggled in a season many expected him to take the next step forward. Wisconsin has been desperate to find some sort of positives at the QB position for quite some time, and many (including myself) thought Mertz would solve that issue. While it hasn’t materialized, there are some brights spots to his game, which came out against Rutgers this weekend. Celebrate the good games, it doesn’t always have to be about the bad!

Power 5 QB Play This Week

Group of 5 QB Play This Week

If you’re wondering where your QB is, they either did not reach the minimum play requirement, or there was no ESPN QBR data available at the time of this graph creation.

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