College Football Analytics: Week 6 Recap

Looking at the numbers from an ELECTRIC CFB Weekend

What. A. WEEKEND! This college football weekend had everything. An electric red river showdown, points scored all over the place, and upsets! A star was born a la Caleb Williams, and UMass has won a football game. Buckle up ladies and gentlemen, this is going to be a rollercoaster recap.

*Note* During the season if I miss a certain game in my recaps, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com)or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.

Also, I use Expected Points Added rather frequently in these recaps. If you need help digesting the decimals, I wrote about how to make it easier to read EPA/Play numbers.

Oklahoma 54 - Texas 48

What a game! A back and forth game that ultimately saw Oklahoma take down Texas in the Red River Showdown. The biggest storyline out of this game was Spencer Rattler getting benched midway through the game for highly touted freshman Caleb Williams.

Williams wasted no time making his presence known, scoring a 66 yard rushing touchdown on a 4th and 1 from their own 34 yard line. From there on he was hyper efficient, and most importantly kept a clean slate in terms of EP lost. Casey Thompson had a great game in his own right, but the stage belonged to Williams. It still remains to be seen what Lincoln Riley does going forward, but one thing is for certain: Caleb Williams can play some football.

Ole Miss 52 - Arkansas 51

If you were too busy watching an insane Red River Showdown, you might have missed this firework show. Arkansas and Ole Miss went toe to toe offensively and both were extremely successful moving the ball. Ultimately it came down to a missed two point conversion attempt or else this game might have reached basketball score territory. Ole Miss and the Lane Train escape with the victory here, but hats off to Arkansas for putting up a hell of a fight.

Michigan State 31 - Rutgers 13

Tell your friends and loved ones: Michigan State is a GOOD football team! They handle Rutgers to stay undefeated on the season. Mel Tucker deserves a lot of credit coming in here and producing a quick turnaround.

Notre Dame 32 - Virginia Tech 29

This feels like a game that Notre Dame kept Virginia Tech hanging around in the game. The Notre Dame OL came into this game under a little bit of heat, but after this 9.8% stuff rate and 3.3 OL Yards per play performance, hopefully some of those flames have been extinguished. Notre Dame squeaks by to take down Virginia Tech on the road, but the offensive questions continue to plague the Fighting Irish

Michigan 32 - Nebraska 29

I really do feel for Scott Frost and the Cornhuskers. This was a game Nebraska could have won, but ultimately they fall to Michigan. EP lost to turnovers ended up being the ultimate difference maker in this matchup. Eventually these close losses need to end up as wins for Nebraska, but for now they continue to search for ways to win.

Michigan trailed for the first time this season this game but they ultimately pulled out the victory. Michigan remains undefeated and, considering the chaos of this season, that remains fine regardless of how you win.

Georgia 34 - Auburn 10

Hey look everyone the Georgia Bulldogs dominated again! This time the unlucky foe was rival Auburn, who could only muster a 34.7% success rate and 4.5 yards per play. The Georgia offense was actually pretty good all things considering. 0.131 EPA/Play isn’t exactly world breaking, but when your defense is being considered in the “all time elite” category, you don’t need much to get the job done.

Iowa 23 - Penn State 20

Speaking of elite defense, the Iowa Hawkeyes win with a shutdown turnover driven defense, and a putrid offense. So basically, exactly how Iowa wants to win football games. Penn State did lose Sean Clifford to injury, which definitely changed the course of the game. Ultimately Iowa walks away with the victory, and squarely in the playoff race. More so than Georgia, Iowa needs to get better offensively, because turnovers are not a sustainable way to win football games. Take it from me Hawkeye fans, my Miami Dolphins are a very miserable 1-4.

Florida State 35 - North Carolina 25

THE FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES ARE ON A 2 GAME WINNING STREAK! This type they down North Carolina on the road as 17.5 point underdogs. Florida State has been desperately lacking in the passing game, but LOOK AT THAT PASSING EPA. They handled this game from start to finish, and was a much more complete win than last year. The coaching staff deserves a lot of credit for this game plan.

Wake Forest 30 - Syracuse 37

The Demon Deacons survive a scare against Syracuse to remain undefeated on the season. Despite some early struggles, Sam Hartman and the Wake Forest passing offense got back on tract and finished with a very respectable 0.298 EPA/Play. This is now the second week in a row that Syracuse feels like they probably should have walked away with a victory. Nevertheless, 6-0 Wake Forest.

UMass 27 - Connecticut 13

A huge congratulations to the UMass Minutemen for notching their first win of the season! They knock off UConn in convincing fashion. For a program struggling to establish themselves, wins like these deserved to be celebrated.

Texas A&M 41 - Alabama 38

Upset! The No. 1 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide are upset on the road by the Texas A&M Aggies. Texas A&M came out firing, and survived the Crimson Tide comeback attempt. QB Zach Calzada entered this season as the backup QB, but after an injury to Haynes King early in the season, has stepped up as the starting QB and balled out against the Tide defense. An uncharacteristic night for the Alabama offense, especially giving up 11.88 expected points off turnovers.

Alabama is still firmly in the drivers seat in the SEC West, but this is a great win for an A&M program looking to take the next step forward.

Arizona State 28 - Stanford 10

To wrap up this electric weekend, let’s go to #Pac12AfterDark with Arizona State cruising to victory against Stanford. Arizona State is 5-1 on the season, and humming offensively. For a team most expected to be bogged down by their offseason scandals, this team is looking to be a serious contender in the Pac 12.

Quick QB Shoutout…

Gerry Bohanon, have a game! Highly efficient, explosive, and kept a clean slate. He is a big reason Baylor is 5-1 on the season, and a sleeper pick in the Big 12 race.

Power 5 QB Performances

Group of 5 QB Performances

If you’re wondering where your QB is, they either did not reach the minimum play requirement, or there was no ESPN QBR data available at the time of this graph creation.

If you want to dive in to the data like I do, check out @CFB_Data and @cfbfastR on Twitter, where you can learn how to get started in the world of College Football data analysis!

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Cover Photo: Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images