College Football Analytics: Week 8 Recap
Recapping some of the notable games this week
College Football is one of the most beautiful games on this earth. The exact same sport produced a 9 OT game with only 38 total points scored, and a game where there were 128 points scored. The exact same sport with the exact same rules. Thats just the beginning of this past weekend, so grab a snack and settle in, this is your week 8 recap.
*Note* During the season if I miss a certain game in my recaps, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com)or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.
Also, I use Expected Points Added rather frequently in these recaps. If you need help digesting the decimals, I wrote about how to make it easier to read EPA/Play numbers.
Oklahoma 35 - Kansas 23
Yep, you’re reading this right. Kansas actually beat Oklahoma in the post game win expectancy battle. Ultimately they did end up losing the game, but they sure did give Oklahoma a fight we rarely see from this Kansas team. The Sooners were held scoreless in the first half:
Ultimately Caleb Williams was too much for the Jayhawks. Caleb Williams has been nothing but electric since taking over for the Sooners. Oklahoma could in fact have another elite QB.
Cincinnati 27 - Navy 20
Another top 4 team in distress this week was the Cincinnati Bearcats. They survive a scare against the Navy Midshipmen. Not really a high ceiling day for the Bearcats offense, but succeeding on nearly half of your plays on offense will help you against a team looking to limit your possessions. At this point I believe Cincinnati just has to win out to make the playoff, so any type of win is a win.
Michigan 33 - Northwestern 7
Not really a great offensively for Michigan, but they win pretty easily against Northwestern. Michigan has been very much sliding under the radar this year, but they have largely been unchallenged so far this season. This is all going to change next weekend, where they face Mel Tucker and a surging Michigan State rival.
Illinois 20 - Penn State 18 (9 OTs!)
This… I don’t really know what I watched. So for those of you unaware of the new overtime rules, after the 2nd overtime both teams alternate 2 point conversions attempts until a team comes out victorious. Problem is, when neither team can gain the 3 yards necessary to convert, you get masterpieces like this. Ultimately Illinois prevailed after being led by a backup QB Brandon Peters after Artur Sitkowski got injured in one of the earlier OT periods. Illinois finished in the positive EPA category, and got a top ten victory on the road. Congrats Illini!
Wake Forest 70 - Army 56
Remember, this box score and the previous one are the SAME SPORT! Defense was optional this game, and we saw everything from long TD’s to pick 6’s on fake FG’s. Wake Forest came out of the slugfest victorious, thanks to QB Sam Hartman having a career day through the air:
Wake Forest is still undefeated, and firmly in control of their destiny in the ACC. They still have bouts with Clemson and NC State, but if Sam Hartman can continue playing at an elite level, this team could really run the table.
Iowa State 24 - Oklahoma State 21
Based on the AP Poll, this was a top ten upset for the Cyclones. If you go by betting markets (probably smarter), this was expected. After losing a couple games Iowa State was cast off, but they’re still a very good team and they showed it against the Cowboys. Brock Purdy had a banner day through the air, and the Cyclones were successful on half of their plays. Thats a recipe for victory!
Oregon 34 - UCLA 31
This was in fact considered an “upset” according to betting markets, as the underdog top ten Oregon team defeats UCLA. This game had a LOT of expected points lost to turnovers, so im not sure if either team can really be happy with their offensive performance. Nevertheless, Oregon remains a one loss team with a win over a surging Ohio State squad. Sounds like a playoff resume that keeps getting better.
Pittsburgh 27 - Clemson 17
Hail to Pitt!! They take down Clemson and get past a big hurdle in their way towards a possible ACC title and playoff appearance. Kenny Pickett is playing out of his mind at the moment, and the defense is looking stronger by the day. Clemson is just straight up broken offensively. We haven’t seen a Clemson football team with this bad an EPA/Pass in a while. Im not really sure what the answer is, but Clemson needs to do some deep soul searching.
Notre Dame 31 - USC 16
One of the most storied rivalries in the game is Notre Dame vs. USC. This chapter of the rivalry wasn’t as exciting as others, but nevertheless the Irish take down USC. This was one of the better Irish offensive performances for Notre Dame this season. Notre Dame still sits at 1 loss to a #2 ranked Cincinnati team, so while Notre Dame might be on the outside looking in right now, don’t exactly count them out of the playoff race.
UTSA 45 - Louisiana Tech 16
There are only two 8-0 teams in college football at the moment. Oklahoma, and the Roadrunners of UTSA. What an excellent story this year! UTSA continues their magical season by handling Louisiana Tech. UTSA was very consistent on offense with a 56% success rate. They weren’t over the top explosive, but they don’t make very mistakes. UTSA has a date with UTEP coming up, and honestly could be a site for College Gameday.
QB Shoutout of the Week goes to…
CJ Stroud! After starting slow this season, a lot of people wrote off CJ Stroud and the Ohio State Buckeyes. Now he is playing some of the best football out there, is a very real contender for the Heisman this year, and Ohio State is still very much in the playoff conversation. He was successful on 71%! of his plays against Indiana. Watch out folks, Ohio State is still dangerous.
Power 5 QB Performances
Group of 5 QB Performances
If you’re wondering where your QB is, they either did not reach the minimum play requirement, or there was no ESPN QBR data available at the time of this graph creation.
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