College Football Analytics: Week 9 Recap
Recapping the spooky stats of the week
Happy Halloween weekend everyone! I am currently writing this article in a Wandavision Vision costume. For reference:
Now that we got that out of the way, let us recap the notable games from this spooky weekend.
*Note* During the season if I miss a certain game in my recaps, simply email (CFBNumbers@gmail.com)or DM on Twitter (@CFBNumbers) and I will happily provide you any number related thing you desire.
Also, I use Expected Points Added rather frequently in these recaps. If you need help digesting the decimals, I wrote about how to make it easier to read EPA/Play numbers.
Cincinnati 31 - Tulane 12
Cincinnati continues its playoff hopeful season by beating Tulane. Offensively this wasn’t a bad game for the Bearcats, it just wasn’t really what you’d expect out of a top 2 team against an unranked opponent. Cincinnati will know exactly where they stand with this playoff committee come Tuesday. Im not so sure they will be continue to be the No. 2 ranked team, but it will be interesting to see where they stand in the top 6.
Michigan State 37 - Michigan 33
As if you expected anything different folks! Michigan won the post game expectancy battle, but ultimately fell to their in state rival Michigan State. The Spartans had some bad turnovers to start the game, leading to -13.46 EP lost. They eventually battled back into the game on the back of superstar RB Kenneth Walker, who may or may not be a legitimate contender for the Heisman trophy.
Wisconsin 27 - Iowa 7
The wheels have officially come off for the Iowa Hawkeyes. They fall to Wisconsin, who have been up and down to say the least this season. Iowa has been reliant on forcing turnovers on defense, and they came up empty this Saturday. Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz finished the game with a pretty disappointing -0.195 EPA/Play, which is an under 25th percentile performance. Considering he didn’t turn the ball over against this ball hawking defense… I guess this is a win?
Baylor 31 - Texas 24
Baylor has been silently good this year, but that under the radar movement is slowly going to fade away. Baylor contains the Steve Sarkisian offense and takes down Texas to remain firmly in the Big 12 title conversation. They somehow managed to win this game despite giving up nearly 15 expected points in turnovers! That is absurd, and shows the resiliency of this Baylor team.
Miami 38 - Pittsburgh 34
Miami upsets Pitt and wins a second game in a row against a ranked opponent. Miami is technically still in the race for the ACC coastal, but they’re probably more focused on the future than the present. Their future is starting to look brighter with QB Tyler Van Dyke, who is looking more confident which each passing game.
Worlds Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party
On a scale of 1-1980, this Georgia season is starting to feel pretty dang close to 1980. Georgia dominates Florida. At one point this game looked and felt close, then the middle 8 (Last 4 mins of 1st half, first 4 mins of 2nd half) happened. A majority of that -13.86 EP lost to turnovers occurred in the middle 8. Similar to previous games, Georgia’s offense really didn’t do much this game. They finished in the positive EPA range for both overall offense and rushing offense, which is basically all they need to win this year.
Auburn 31 - Ole Miss 20
Auburn derails the Lane Train and Ole Miss. Auburn is 6-2 overall on the season, and Bo Nix has been up and down this season. If we bin Bo Nix games into “Bad Bo Nix” and “Good Bo Nix” games, this game is squarely in the “Good Bo Nix” category:
Not overly efficient, but nevertheless efficient in general. Successful on 52.6% of plays, and made up for the 8.16 lost expected points with a dual threat attack. As for Matt Corral, sacks and turnovers sank him in this game. Props to him for coming back into the game after suffering what could have been a horrific ankle injury.
Notre Dame 44 - North Carolina 34
Sound the alarms! Notre Dame won a football game with good offense! The Fighting Irish build off their offensive performance last game with an ever better performance against the Tarheels. QB Jack Coan and the Notre Dame offense was on point this game, and they continue to get better each passing week. Notre Dame still only has one loss, and could potentially sneak their way into the playoff. Im not sure where the playoff committee will rank the Irish, but it will be something to keep your eye on.
Ohio State 33 - Penn State 24
To wrap this up, Ohio State sort of struggled to get across the Penn State hurdle, but nevertheless they got over it successfully. This wasn’t the best offensive performance for the Buckeyes, but it ended up being enough to win. As for Penn State… turnovers, turnovers, turnovers. They lost over two touchdowns worth of expected points due to turnovers. Maybe their head coach is looking for warmer pastures, but Penn State’s season has been completely derailed over the past 2 games.
Of course it has to be Caleb Williams. Look at that EPA/Play! Over HALF of his plays were explosive. This man is a human highlight reel and he is only a Freshman. Caleb Williams is starting to legitimize himself as a superstar QB. It should be noted that Spencer Rattler was well above average when it comes to season EPA/Play. He wasn’t bad, but Caleb Williams has taken this offense to an entirely different level.
Power 5 QB Performances
Group of 5 QB Performances
If you’re wondering where your QB is, they either did not reach the minimum play requirement, or there was no ESPN QBR data available at the time of this graph creation.
If you want to see more charts and one off analysis, follow my twitter page, @CFBNumbers