Simulating the 2024 CFB Season: Group of 5

Round two of the simulations focuses on our favorite group of 5 schools!

Welcome back to the newsletter! Last week we simulated the 2024 college football season and looked at how the Power 4 conferenced played out. This week, we will be taking a look at the Group of 5 conferences, as well as the Pac-2 and FBS Independents.

If this is your first time looking at the 2024 simulations, a quick TLDR on how we did it: First, we created a consensus preseason power rating system. Next, we transformed our spread differences into percentages:

After we got each teams percent chance to beat a certain opponent on their schedule, we simulated each game 1000 times using those percentages and added up each teams win total to see what their range of wins could look like for this upcoming season. We will go conference by conference, so lets get started.

American Athletic Season Simulations

Went with a more beeswarm style at the suggestion of Football Analytics HOFer Ron Yurko

First up is the AAC. This conference is expected to contend with the Mountain West as the 5th conference that will receive a bid to the CFB Playoff. In our sims, Memphis leads the way as the main contender. UTSA football is an interesting one. They are still expected to be at the top of the conference, but they are losing a ton of talent from last season, including UTSA legend QB Frank Harris. The numbers have them as a contender but I am personally a little more skeptical. The same could be said for Tulane, who loses QB Michael Pratt and HC Willie Fritz.

Comparing our simulated wins to the sportsbooks win totals (adjusted for odds), we are the lowest on North Texas (5.4 sim wins vs. 5.8 win total) and South Florida (6.7 sim wins vs. 7.0 win total). On the other side, we are higher on ECU (6.6 sim wins vs. 5.9 win total) and Tulsa (5.3 sim wins vs. 4.7 win total).

Mountain West Season Simulations

Last season, Boise State fired their head coach Andy Avalos in the middle of the season after starting the year 5-5. Spencer Danielson took over as interim HC, took the team to the MWC championship and handled UNLV 44-20 to take the title. Now as the official HC, Danielson and the Broncos are in the pole position in the conference. Following Boise State is Fresno State, who will be without Fresno legend Jeff Tedford who stepped away due to health concerns in mid July.

Taking a look at the sportsbooks, we are the lowest on UNLV (6.5 sim wins vs. 7.0 win total) and Colorado State (5.9 sim wins vs. 6.3 win total). On the other side, we are higher on Hawai’i (5.6 sim wins vs. 4.7 win total) and New Mexico (2.5 sim wins vs. 1.8 win total).

Sun Belt Season Simulations

Its the Fun Belt!! Since their transition to the FBS, James Madison is 19-5 including an 11-2 season last year. This is their first year that they can be eligible for a bowl game, and they are still atop our simulations despite their losses including their HC Curt Cignetti to Indiana. This conference is expected to be a tight race, from James Madison all the way down to Coastal. 9+ wins should get you into the conference championship and all 7 of the top teams have a 75th percentile outcome at 9 or more wins.

We are the lowest on Old Dominion (4.3 sim wins vs. 5.1 win total) and Appalachian State (7.6 sim wins vs. 7.9 win total). On the other side, we are higher on Georgia State (5.3 sim wins vs. 4.2 win total - this is the biggest difference in all of the FBS) and James Madison (8.8 sim wins vs. 8.2 win total).

Mid-American Season Simulations

Toledo has been in the MAC championship two years in a row. A victor in 2022, but a 2nd place finisher last season. While they lose dual threat QB Dequan Finn (this newsletter is a Dequan Finn enthusiast), they are expected to remain at the top of the MAC this season. 7 wins gets you into the conference championship conversation and if you take a look at each teams 75th percentile outcome… yeah thats the whole conference minus Akron and Kent State. MAction mainly means football games on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, but it also means a truly up for grabs conference. If you like parity, follow the Mid-American conference.

We are the lowest on Toledo (7.8 sim wins vs. 8.5 win total) and Ohio (6.3 sim wins vs. 6.7 win total). On the other side, we are higher on Buffalo (5.8 sim wins vs. 5.3 win total) and Eastern Michigan (5.0 sim wins vs. 4.6 win total).

Conference USA Season Simulations

Rounding out the Group of 5 conferences is Conference USA, where it will remain Liberty’s conference. Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State could make it interesting, but for the most part it should be Liberty led by offensive genius Jamey Chadwell and dual threat star QB Kaidon Salter. This will be the first year in the FBS for Kennesaw State, and the 2nd year for Sam Houston State and Jacksonville State.

We are the lowest on Jacksonville State (7.3 sim wins vs. 8.0 win total) and Middle Tennessee (5.2 sim wins vs. 5.2 win total- the difference is small only 0.03). On the other side, we are higher on Kennesaw State (3.0 sim wins vs. 2.4 win total) and New Mexico State (5.0 sim wins vs. 4.4 win total).

The Pac-2 and FBS Independents

Finally, we have the Pac-2 and the Independents. Oregon State and Washington State will play a mix of Mountain West teams as well as some previous Pac-12 conference mates but overall its just a weird in between year for both schools. It is still to be determined whether they will join the Mountain West outright or try and rebuild the Pac-12. As for Notre Dame, they averaged 10.4 wins in our simulations, while the sportsbooks have them at 9.9 adjusted win total. If transfer QB Riley Leonard can stay healthy, they should be gunning for an at large playoff bid this season.

The entire FBS has been simulated! For the most part our simulations are very similar to the sportsbooks win totals. On average, the simulations are 0.3 wins above or below the sportsbooks win totals adjusted for price. While a lot can happen during a season (injuries, coaches getting fired etc.) these win ranges should give us a good idea of who is expected to be good this season.

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