Great work! Thanks for posting all of these. Was just looking through them, seems like the "Most wins in conference" column adds up to more than 100%, presumably because ties count as both teams finishing with most wins, in the event that, for example two or three teams all finish with 9 or 10 wins. Something to think about adjusting for in the future!
Visualization comment - I’m confused by the choice of scatterplots for displaying the distribution of simulated wins for each team (since y = x), why not just display bar charts or ridges instead?
Hey Ron! I probably should have used bar charts with the amount of teams in one visualization. I used the scatterplot in an article a while back about 2021 Nebraska's unlucky season and thought it would be nice to try it again. When its just one team I feel like it shows the distribution of wins nicely, but it isn't as effective with an entire conference.
Just to clarify - the plot is really only 1D right? Do you prefer the use of points as the geometric object? Because something that could look really good with a conference of teams is a beeswarm plot using ggbeeswarm (with coord_flip to make it horizontal)
I should have looked into using beeswarm that is a good point! That might be a better idea and ill look into it for the Group of 5 version of this article.
Is there anything in the data that can explain how Miami is consistently ranked as one of the top teams in the conference preseason despite zero evidence to support this assumption?
Since 2021 they have been a top 3 team in the 247 team talent composition and this year they bring in Cam Ward who has been very solid and has shown flashes of elite QB play. They don't lead the FBS in returning production but they return a decent amount of talent. Now.... will they live up to those expectations? Thats always the question lol
Great work! Thanks for posting all of these. Was just looking through them, seems like the "Most wins in conference" column adds up to more than 100%, presumably because ties count as both teams finishing with most wins, in the event that, for example two or three teams all finish with 9 or 10 wins. Something to think about adjusting for in the future!
Visualization comment - I’m confused by the choice of scatterplots for displaying the distribution of simulated wins for each team (since y = x), why not just display bar charts or ridges instead?
Hey Ron! I probably should have used bar charts with the amount of teams in one visualization. I used the scatterplot in an article a while back about 2021 Nebraska's unlucky season and thought it would be nice to try it again. When its just one team I feel like it shows the distribution of wins nicely, but it isn't as effective with an entire conference.
Just to clarify - the plot is really only 1D right? Do you prefer the use of points as the geometric object? Because something that could look really good with a conference of teams is a beeswarm plot using ggbeeswarm (with coord_flip to make it horizontal)
Yeah its a 1D plot but the points are jittered. It ends up creating boxes when its just one team:
(https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5f413703-07fe-4904-b8f4-b4456e9812ef_1920x1822.png)
I should have looked into using beeswarm that is a good point! That might be a better idea and ill look into it for the Group of 5 version of this article.
Yeah you effectively are making beeswarm plots along the diagonal
Is there anything in the data that can explain how Miami is consistently ranked as one of the top teams in the conference preseason despite zero evidence to support this assumption?
Since 2021 they have been a top 3 team in the 247 team talent composition and this year they bring in Cam Ward who has been very solid and has shown flashes of elite QB play. They don't lead the FBS in returning production but they return a decent amount of talent. Now.... will they live up to those expectations? Thats always the question lol